MeritValue

QUAKER CHEMICAL CORP

KWRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QUAKER CHEMICAL CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $66.87 and $464.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.76B1$1.94B2$1.95B3$1.84B3$1.89B3
Net income$121.4M4−$15.9M5$112.7M6$116.6M6−$2.49M6
Operating cash flow$48.9M7$41.8M8$279M9$204.6M9$136.5M9
Capital expenditure$21.5M10$28.5M11$38.8M12$41.8M12$55.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27.5M7$13.3M8$240.2M9$162.8M9$80.6M9
Total debt$950.3M13$1.92B14$1.53B15$1.45B16$1.78B16
Cash & equivalents$165.2M17$181M18$194.5M19$188.9M20$179.8M20
Diluted shares17.9M17.9M17.9M17.9M17.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$785.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,016.44

10 shares is a claim on $785.85 of net worth that earned you −$1.42 and generated $46.13 of cash last year, against $1,016.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 1%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 1%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 87% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $66.87 and $464.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$464.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$162.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$212.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$162.8M
Earnings Power Value
$66.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$112.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $212.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.76
Base20.0%$212.4
Bull20.0%$212.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000081362-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000081362-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010694 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000081362-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000081362-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010694 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000081362-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000081362-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010694 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000081362-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000081362-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010694 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000081362-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000081362-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000081362-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010694 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000081362-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000081362-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000081362-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010694 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)