MeritValue

Klaviyo, Inc.

KVYOdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Klaviyo, Inc. earns about -60% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.42 and $14.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$290.6M1$472.7M2$698.1M3$937.5M3$1.23B3
Net income−$79.4M4−$49.2M5−$308.2M6−$46.1M6−$31.8M6
Operating cash flow−$22.7M7−$23.6M8$119.4M9$166M9$218M9
Capital expenditure$13M10$15.8M11$3.65M12$5.92M12$9.49M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$35.8M7−$39.4M8$115.7M9$160M9$208.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$327.9M13$385.8M14$738.6M15$881.5M16$1.06B16
Diluted shares220.9M229.9M242.9M266.3M290.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$41.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $41.13 of net worth that earned you −$1.09 and generated $7.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-60% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -138%FY24 -23%FY25 -18%

It earned about -60% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.42 and $14.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$160M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$160M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.52
Base5.0%$13.42
Bull10.0%$15.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835830-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835830-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835830-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835830-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835830-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835830-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835830-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835830-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835830-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835830-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835830-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835830-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835830-25-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835830-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835830-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001835830-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)