MeritValue

Kenvue Inc.

KVUEdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kenvue Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.96 and $11.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.1B1$15B2$15.4B3$15.5B3$15.1B3
Net income$2.08B4$2.06B5$1.66B6$1.03B6$1.47B6
Operating cash flow$334M7$2.53B8$3.17B9$1.77B9$2.2B9
Capital expenditure$295M10$375M11$469M12$434M12$475M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39M7$2.15B8$2.7B9$1.34B9$1.72B9
Total debt—$013$8.89B14$3.1B15$2.9B15
Cash & equivalents$740M16$1.23B17$1.38B18$1.07B19$1.06B19
Diluted shares1.72B1.72B1.85B1.92B1.92B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$15.09

10 shares is a claim on $55.95 of net worth that earned you $7.64 and generated $8.95 of cash last year, against $15.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY23 11%FY23 10%FY24 11%FY25 14%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.96 and $11.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.72B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.72B
Earnings Power Value
$8.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.66B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.83
Base0.0%$11.83
Bull5.0%$14.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001944048-24-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944048-26-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001944048-24-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944048-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001944048-24-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944048-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001944048-24-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944048-26-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001944048-24-000057 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001944048-26-000030 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001944048-24-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944048-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001944048-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)