MeritValue

Kura Oncology, Inc.

KURAdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kura Oncology, Inc. earns about -155% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$53.9M1$67.5M1
Net income−$130.5M2−$135.8M3−$152.6M4−$174M4−$278.7M4
Operating cash flow−$104.6M5−$110.1M6−$124.8M7$134.3M7−$64.1M7
Capital expenditure$1.15M8$626,0009$168,00010$472,00010$6.64M10
Free cash flow (derived)−$105.7M5−$110.7M6−$125M7$133.8M7−$70.7M7
Total debt—$9.16M11$9.33M12$19M13$19.4M13
Cash & equivalents$90.7M14$51.8M15$37.3M16$224.5M17$149.1M17
Diluted shares66.4M67.0M73.2M86.2M87.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$31.78
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.21

10 shares is a claim on $19.86 of net worth that earned you −$31.78 and generated −$8.06 of cash last year, against $2.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-155% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -28%FY23 -32%FY24 -65%FY25 -495%

It earned an average -155% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 112% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092567 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029975 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092567 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029975 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021094 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029975 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092567 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021094 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029975 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092567 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004107 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029975 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-092567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)