MeritValue

KEY TRONIC CORP

KTCCdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KEY TRONIC CORP earns about 1% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$518.7M1$544.2M2$605.3M2$566.9M3$467.9M3
Net income$4.34M4$3.38M5$5.16M5−$2.79M6−$8.32M6
Operating cash flow−$15.1M7−$4.91M8−$11.3M8$13.8M9$18.9M9
Capital expenditure$10.6M10$6.81M11$9.77M11$3.96M12$4.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$25.7M7−$11.7M8−$21.1M8$9.82M9$14.8M9
Total debt$100.4M13$205M14$249.3M14$239M15$210.3M15
Cash & equivalents$3.47M16$1.71M17$3.6M17$4.75M18$1.38M18
Diluted shares11.0M11.1M10.9M10.8M10.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$108.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.78
Debt you’d be carrying
$195.41

10 shares is a claim on $108.84 of net worth that earned you −$7.73 and generated $13.78 of cash last year, against $195.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 -1%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 109% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.82M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.82M
Earnings Power Value
$3.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.38M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000719733-22-000063 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000719733-24-000113 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000719733-25-000086 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000719733-22-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000719733-24-000113 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000719733-25-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000719733-22-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000719733-24-000113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000719733-25-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000719733-22-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000719733-24-000113 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000719733-25-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000719733-21-000106 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000719733-24-000113 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000719733-25-000086 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000719733-22-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000719733-24-000113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000719733-25-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)