MeritValue

Kontoor Brands, Inc.

KTBdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kontoor Brands, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.66 and $237.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$2.48B1$2.63B2$2.61B3$2.61B3$3.15B3
Net income$195.4M4$245.5M5$231M6$245.8M6$227.5M6
Operating cash flow$283.9M7$83.6M8$356.5M9$368.2M9$455.8M9
Capital expenditure$10.6M10$18.4M11$27.4M12$18.8M12$21M12
Free cash flow (derived)$273.3M7$65.2M8$329.2M9$349.4M9$434.8M9
Total debt$1.58B13$1.59B14$1.57B15$1.48B16$2.29B16
Cash & equivalents$185.3M17$59.2M18$215.1M19$334.1M20$108.4M20
Diluted shares59.1M57.0M56.9M56.3M56.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$100.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$407.55

10 shares is a claim on $100.67 of net worth that earned you $40.54 and generated $77.49 of cash last year, against $407.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY22 15%FY22 15%FY23 15%FY24 16%FY26 8%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 44% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.66 and $237.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$237.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$349.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$134.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$349.4M
Earnings Power Value
$42.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$231M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $134.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$50.16
Base16.0%$134.96
Bull20.0%$164.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001760965-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760965-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001760965-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001760965-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760965-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001760965-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001760965-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760965-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001760965-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001760965-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760965-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001760965-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001760965-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760965-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001760965-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001760965-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001760965-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001760965-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001760965-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001760965-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)