MeritValue

KOHLS Corp

KSSdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KOHLS Corp earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.73 and $67.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$19.4B1$18.1B2$17.5B3$16.2B3$15.5B3
Net income$938M4−$19M5$317M6$109M6$272M6
Operating cash flow$2.27B7$282M8$1.17B9$648M9$1.38B9
Capital expenditure$605M10$826M11$577M12$466M12$372M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.67B7−$544M8$591M9$182M9$1.01B9
Total debt$1.91B13$1.91B14$1.64B15$1.53B16$1.44B16
Cash & equivalents$1.59B17$153M18$183M19$134M20$674M20
Diluted shares148.0M120.0M111.0M112.0M114.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$355.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$88.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$125.96

10 shares is a claim on $355.09 of net worth that earned you $23.86 and generated $88.42 of cash last year, against $125.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 15%FY23 -5%FY24 0%FY25 -4%FY26 1%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.73 and $67.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$61.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$591M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$67.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$591M
Earnings Power Value
$24.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$272M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $67.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.39
Base0.0%$67.39
Bull5.0%$85.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-034691 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042662 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-115982 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-034691 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042662 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-115982 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-034691 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042662 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-115982 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-034691 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-042662 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-115982 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-008444 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-034691 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-042662 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-115982 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-008444 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-034691 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-042662 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-115982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)