Krystal Biotech, Inc.
KRYSdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on fileKrystal Biotech, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.78 and $93.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $01 | $02 | $50.7M3 | $290.5M3 | $389.1M3 |
| Net income | −$69.6M4 | −$140M5 | $10.9M6 | $89.2M6 | $204.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$47.9M7 | −$100.6M8 | −$88.8M9 | $123.4M9 | $200.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $68.3M10 | $53M11 | $11.8M12 | $4.24M12 | $12M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$116.3M7 | −$153.5M8 | −$100.6M9 | $119.2M9 | $188.9M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $341.2M13 | $161.9M14 | $358.3M15 | $344.9M16 | $496.3M16 |
| Diluted shares | 22.2M | 25.5M | 27.8M | 29.7M | 30.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $407.19 of net worth that earned you $68.39 and generated $63.07 of cash last year.
It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.78 and $93.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$119.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$119.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$10.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $73.42 |
| Base | 5.0% | $87.19 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $103.65 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001711279-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001711279-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001711279-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001711279-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001711279-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001711279-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001711279-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001711279-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001711279-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001711279-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001711279-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001711279-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001711279-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001711279-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001711279-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001711279-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)