Karat Packaging Inc.
KRTdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on fileKarat Packaging Inc. earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.39 and $140.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $364.2M1 | $423M2 | $405.7M3 | $422.6M4 | $467.7M4 |
| Net income | $20.8M5 | $23.6M6 | $32.5M7 | $30M8 | $31.5M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $8.68M9 | $29.5M10 | $53.4M11 | $48M12 | $33.8M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $4.18M13 | $2.66M14 | $2.84M15 | $934,00016 | $756,00016 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $4.5M9 | $26.8M10 | $50.5M11 | $47M12 | $33.1M12 |
| Total debt | $1.38M17 | $1.17M18 | $1.33M18 | $1.18M19 | $12.9M19 |
| Cash & equivalents | $6.48M20 | $16M21 | $23.1M22 | $31.6M23 | $37.9M23 |
| Diluted shares | 18.6M | 19.9M | 20.0M | 20.1M | 20.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $74.04 of net worth that earned you $15.6 and generated $16.38 of cash last year, against $6.41 of debt.
It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 839% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.39 and $140.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$47M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$47M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$30M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $34.55 |
| Base | 20.0% | $77.25 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $77.25 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008299 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011444 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012816 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001758021-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008299 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011444 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012816 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001758021-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008299 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011444 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012816 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001758021-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008299 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011444 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012816 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001758021-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008299 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011444 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001758021-26-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-008299 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011444 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012816 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001758021-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)