MeritValue

Keros Therapeutics, Inc.

KROSdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Keros Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -3099% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 62% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.1M1$02$151,0002$3.55M3$244.1M3
Net income−$58.7M4−$104.7M5−$153M5−$187.4M6$87M6
Operating cash flow−$62.1M7−$70.1M8−$124.5M8−$160.9M9$107.5M9
Capital expenditure$1.02M10$1.24M11$2.46M11$1.93M12$1.55M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$63.2M7−$71.3M8−$127M8−$162.8M9$106M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$230M13$279M14$331.1M14$559.9M15$287.4M15
Diluted shares23.3M25.2M29.4M37.4M37.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.99
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $80.07 of net worth that earned you $22.98 and generated $27.99 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3099% avg · 5y
FY21 -341%FY22 —FY23 -11338%FY24 -1271%FY25 554%

It earned an average -3099% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+62% shares · 5y

Share count is up 62% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$20.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001664710-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001664710-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001664710-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001664710-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001664710-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001664710-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001664710-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001664710-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001664710-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001664710-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001664710-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001664710-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001664710-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001664710-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001664710-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)