MeritValue

KRONOS WORLDWIDE INC

KROdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KRONOS WORLDWIDE INC earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 99567000% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.94B1$1.93B2$1.67B3$1.89B3$1.86B3
Net income$112.9M4$104.5M5−$49.1M6$86.2M6−$110.9M6
Operating cash flow$206.5M7$81.7M8$5.5M9$72.5M9$2.5M9
Capital expenditure$58.6M10$63.2M11$47.4M12$29.5M12$42.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$147.9M7$18.5M8−$41.9M9$43M9−$40.4M9
Total debt$902.4M13$850.4M14$881.8M15$1.01B16$1.11B16
Cash & equivalents$406M17$327.8M18$194.7M19$106.7M20$33.2M20
Diluted shares115.5115.5M115.1M115.0M115.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$65.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.64
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$96.94

10 shares is a claim on $65.31 of net worth that earned you −$9.64 and generated −$3.51 of cash last year, against $96.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 8%FY23 -3%FY24 5%FY25 -4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+99567000% shares · 5y

Share count is up 99567000% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 24% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$7.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$86.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002607 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002395 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002607 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002395 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002607 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002395 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002607 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002395 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025219 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003144 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002607 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002395 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025219 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003144 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002607 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002395 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)