MeritValue

Kearny Financial Corp.

KRNYdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kearny Financial Corp. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.74 and $12.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.9M1$2.58M1$293.7M2$328.9M2$324.5M2
Net income$63.2M3$67.5M4$40.8M5−$86.7M5$26.1M5
Operating cash flow$75.4M6$81.3M7$69.5M8$44M8$24.8M8
Capital expenditure$5.46M9$2.92M10$1.36M11$1.35M11$3.38M11
Free cash flow (derived)$70M6$78.4M7$68.2M8$42.6M8$21.4M8
Total debt$685.9M12$901.3M13$1.51B13——
Cash & equivalents$67.9M14$101.6M15$70.5M16$63.9M17$167.3M17
Diluted shares82.4M70.9M64.8M62.4M62.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$118.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.41
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $118.94 of net worth that earned you $4.16 and generated $3.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 24%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 120% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.74 and $12.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$42.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$42.6M
Earnings Power Value
$6.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.38
Base0.0%$12.38
Bull5.0%$14.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-017799 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001617242-25-000056 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001617242-23-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001617242-24-000072 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001617242-25-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001617242-23-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001617242-24-000072 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001617242-25-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001617242-23-000067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001617242-24-000072 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001617242-25-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-017799 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001617242-23-000067 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-017799 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001617242-23-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001617242-24-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001617242-25-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)