Karman Holdings Inc.
KRMNdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileKarman Holdings Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 4 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.58 and $0.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $226.3M1 | $280.7M2 | $345.3M2 | $471.5M2 |
| Net income | −$14.1M3 | $4.36M4 | $12.7M4 | $17.4M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$5.89M5 | $20.3M6 | $26.6M6 | −$22.1M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $21.3M7 | $16.8M8 | $15.3M8 | $20.3M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$27.2M5 | $3.55M6 | $11.4M6 | −$42.5M6 |
| Total debt | — | $6.26M9 | $7.14M10 | $3.84M10 |
| Cash & equivalents | — | $5.45M11 | $11.5M12 | $34M12 |
| Diluted shares | 159.1M | 166.8M | 166.7M | 132.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $28.92 of net worth that earned you $1.31 and generated −$3.21 of cash last year, against $0.29 of debt.
It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 17% over 4 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.58 and $0.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$3.55M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$3.55M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$8.53M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.61 |
| Base | 0.0% | $0.61 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $0.7 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052639 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002040127-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052639 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002040127-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052639 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002040127-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052639 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002040127-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052639 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002040127-26-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052639 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002040127-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)