KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST

KRGdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST earns about 2% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 97% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.19 and $10.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$373.3M1$802M2$821.3M3$837.5M3$844.4M3
Net income−$80.8M4−$12.6M5$47.5M6$4.07M6$298.7M6
Operating cash flow$100.4M7$379.3M8$394.6M9$419M9$429.7M9
Capital expenditure$144.7M10$140.5M10$152M10
Free cash flow (derived)$250M9$278.6M9$277.7M9
Total debt$3.15B11$3.01B12$2.83B13$3.23B14$3.03B14
Cash & equivalents$93.2M15$115.8M16$36.4M17$128.1M17$36.8M17
Diluted shares110.6M219.1M219.7M219.7M218.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$138.51

10 shares is a claim on $140.71 of net worth that earned you $13.67 and generated $12.71 of cash last year, against $138.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -0%FY23 1%FY24 0%FY25 10%

It earned about 2% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+97% shares · 5y

Share count is up 97% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.19 and $10.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$277.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$277.7M
Earnings Power Value
$0.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.07M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.48
Base5.0%$8.87
Bull10.0%$14.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001286043-24-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001286043-25-000014 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001286043-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001286043-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001286043-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001286043-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001286043-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001286043-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001286043-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001286043-26-000009 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001286043-23-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001286043-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001286043-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001286043-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001286043-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001286043-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001286043-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)