MeritValue

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

KREFdata completeness 63%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$137.2M1$38.1M2−$30.9M3$35.6M3−$47.1M3
Operating cash flow$124.8M4$141.1M5$155.7M6$132.6M6$72.3M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$271.5M7$239.8M8$135.9M9$104.9M9$84.6M9
Diluted shares56.8M67.6M69.2M69.4M66.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$175.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.04
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $175.51 of net worth that earned you −$7.04 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 21%FY23 27%FY24 15%FY25 5%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001631596-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001631596-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001631596-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001631596-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001631596-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001631596-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)