MeritValue

KILROY REALTY CORP

KRCdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

KILROY REALTY CORP earns about 6% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.63 and $71.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.05M1$11M2$12M3$17.5M3$19.1M3
Net income$658.9M4$259.5M5$238.3M6$233M6$302.6M6
Operating cash flow$516.4M7$592.2M8$602.6M9$541.1M9$566.3M9
Capital expenditure$120.6M10$92.8M11$97.4M12$100.3M12$116M12
Free cash flow (derived)$395.8M7$499.4M8$505.2M9$440.8M9$450.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$414.1M13$347.4M13$510.2M13$165.7M14$179.3M14
Diluted shares116.9M117.2M117.5M118.2M118.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$456.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.89
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $456.17 of net worth that earned you $25.47 and generated $37.89 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
6% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.63 and $71.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$71.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.4%
  • fcfBase$450.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$67.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.4%
  • fcfBase$450.3M
Earnings Power Value
$22.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$259.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $67.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$55.65
Base4.4%$67.03
Bull9.4%$82.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025996-24-000094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025996-25-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025996-24-000094 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025996-25-000052 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007051 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025996-24-000094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025996-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025996-24-000094 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025996-25-000052 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007051 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025996-25-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)