KROGER CO
KRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileKROGER CO earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.79 and $34.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $137.9B1 | $148.3B2 | $150B3 | $147.1B3 | $147.6B3 |
| Net income | $1.66B4 | $2.24B5 | $2.16B6 | $2.67B6 | $1.02B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $6.19B7 | $4.5B8 | $6.79B9 | $5.79B9 | $7.31B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.61B10 | $3.08B11 | $3.9B12 | $4.02B12 | $3.86B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $3.58B7 | $1.42B8 | $2.88B9 | $1.78B9 | $3.46B9 |
| Total debt | $23.5B13 | $22.6B14 | $20.4B15 | $31.8B16 | $31.8B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.82B17 | $1.02B18 | $1.88B19 | $3.96B20 | $3.33B20 |
| Diluted shares | 754.0M | 727.0M | 725.0M | 720.0M | 655.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $90.49 of net worth that earned you $15.51 and generated $52.76 of cash last year, against $484.73 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 35% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.79 and $34.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$2.88B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$2.88B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$2.16B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.53 |
| Base | 0.0% | $19.53 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $34.75 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-004603 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004267 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-037723 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-004603 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004267 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-037723 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-004603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004267 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-037723 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-24-004603 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-25-004267 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001104659-26-037723 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-23-004767 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-004603 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-004267 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001104659-26-037723 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001558370-23-004767 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-004603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-004267 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001104659-26-037723 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)