MeritValue

Kosmos Energy Ltd.

KOSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kosmos Energy Ltd. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.34B1$2.26B1$1.72B1$1.68B2$1.29B2
Net income−$77.8M3$226.6M4$213.5M5$189.9M5−$699.8M5
Operating cash flow$374.3M6$1.13B7$765.2M8$678.2M8$134M8
Capital expenditure$924.2M9$611.6M9———
Free cash flow (derived)−$549.9M6$518.9M7———
Total debt$5.24B10$4.45B11$4.78B12$5.49B13$6.11B13
Cash & equivalents$131.6M14$183.4M15$95.3M16$85M16$91.5M16
Diluted shares416.9M474.9M481.1M476.7M477.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.65
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$127.84

10 shares is a claim on $11.07 of net worth that earned you −$14.65 last year, against $127.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 -8%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$189.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001509991-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001509991-26-000017 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001509991-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001509991-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001509991-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001509991-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001509991-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001509991-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001509991-23-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001509991-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001509991-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001509991-25-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001509991-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001509991-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001509991-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001509991-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)