MeritValue

Kodiak Sciences Inc.

KODdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Kodiak Sciences Inc. earns about -96% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$267M1−$333.8M2−$260.5M3−$176.2M3−$230M3
Operating cash flow−$182.3M4−$206.5M5−$154.2M6−$117.3M6−$136M6
Capital expenditure$17M7$37M8$41.4M9$375,0009$506,0009
Free cash flow (derived)−$199.3M4−$243.5M5−$195.5M6−$117.7M6−$136.5M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$731.5M10$190.4M11$285.5M12$168.1M12$209.9M12
Diluted shares51.8M52.2M52.4M52.6M53.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$29.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$43.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$25.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $29.58 of net worth that earned you −$43.22 and generated −$25.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-96% avg · 5y
FY21 -40%FY22 -77%FY23 -98%FY24 -117%FY25 -146%

It earned an average -96% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134887 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134887 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134887 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134887 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)