MeritValue

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

KNXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6B1$7.43B2$7.14B3$7.41B3$7.47B3
Net income$743.4M4$771.3M5$217.1M6$117.6M6$65.9M6
Operating cash flow$1.19B7$1.44B8$1.16B9$799.1M9$1.27B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.51B10$1.08B11$1.63B12$1.83B13$1.74B13
Cash & equivalents$261M14$196.8M15$168.5M16$218.3M16$220.4M16
Diluted shares167.1M163.2M161.8M162.2M162.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$435.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.06
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$107.25

10 shares is a claim on $435.55 of net worth that earned you $4.06 last year, against $107.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 10%FY23 4%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$217.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492691-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492691-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492691-26-000016 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492691-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492691-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492691-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492691-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492691-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492691-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492691-23-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492691-24-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492691-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001492691-26-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001492691-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001492691-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001492691-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)