MeritValue

Kinetik Holdings Inc.

KNTKdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kinetik Holdings Inc. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.48 and $195.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$662M1$1.21B2$1.26B3$1.48B3$1.76B3
Net income$1.48M4$250.7M5$289.4M6$80M6$178.3M6
Operating cash flow$235.6M7$613M8$584.5M9$637.3M9$604.1M9
Capital expenditure$78M10$206.2M11$312.9M12$263.5M12$492.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$157.5M7$406.8M8$271.6M9$373.8M9$111.6M9
Total debt$2.35B13$3.4B14$3.59B14$3.53B15$3.82B15
Cash & equivalents$18.7M16$6.39M17$4.51M18$3.61M19$3.95M19
Diluted shares041.7M146.2M60.1M62.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$90.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$609.3

10 shares is a claim on −$90.22 of net worth that earned you $28.45 and generated $17.82 of cash last year, against $609.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 15%FY23 12%FY24 81%FY25 23%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 63% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.48 and $195.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$195.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase$271.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$79.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase$271.6M
Earnings Power Value
$29.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$178.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $79.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.06
Base19.9%$79.97
Bull20.0%$80.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692787-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692787-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692787-26-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692787-24-000011 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692787-25-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692787-26-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692787-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692787-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692787-26-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692787-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692787-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692787-26-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692787-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692787-24-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001692787-26-000048 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692787-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692787-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692787-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001692787-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)