MeritValue

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

KNSLdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $137.27 and $2,439.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$653.5M1$838.8M2$1.22B3$1.59B3$1.87B3
Net income$152.7M4$159.1M5$308.1M6$414.8M6$503.6M6
Operating cash flow$407M7$557.8M8$859.8M9$976.3M9$1.04B9
Capital expenditure$5.92M10$6.9M11$6.61M12$23.9M12$53.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$401.1M7$550.9M8$853.2M9$952.4M9$990.1M9
Total debt$42.7M13$195.7M14$183.8M15$184.1M16$224.4M16
Cash & equivalents$121M17$156.3M18$126.7M18$113.2M18$163.4M18
Diluted shares23.1M23.1M23.3M23.3M23.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$842.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$216.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$425.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$96.48

10 shares is a claim on $842.51 of net worth that earned you $216.52 and generated $425.66 of cash last year, against $96.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 21%FY23 28%FY24 27%FY25 25%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 426% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $137.27 and $2,439.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2,439.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$952.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,332.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$952.4M
Earnings Power Value
$137.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$308.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$202.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,332.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$582.4
Base20.0%$1,332.36
Bull20.0%$1,332.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001669162-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001669162-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001669162-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001669162-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001669162-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001669162-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001669162-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001669162-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001669162-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001669162-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001669162-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001669162-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001669162-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001669162-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001669162-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001669162-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001669162-22-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001669162-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)