MeritValue

Knife River Corp

KNFdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Knife River Corp earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.61 and $117.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.23B1$2.53B1$2.83B1$2.9B2$3.15B2
Net income$129.8M3$116.2M4$182.9M5$201.7M5$157.1M5
Operating cash flow$181.2M6$207.4M7$335.7M8$322.3M8$278.5M8
Capital expenditure$174.2M9$178.2M10$124.3M11$172.4M11$348M11
Free cash flow (derived)$7.01M6$29.3M7$211.4M8$149.9M8−$69.6M8
Total debt—$638,00012$1.36B13$1.35B14$2.33B14
Cash & equivalents$13.8M15$10.1M16$219.3M17$236.8M18$73.8M18
Diluted shares56.6M56.6M56.7M56.8M56.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$288.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.61
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$409.72

10 shares is a claim on $288.42 of net worth that earned you $27.61 and generated −$12.23 of cash last year, against $409.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 14%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 4%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 365272% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.61 and $117.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$117.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$149.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$149.9M
Earnings Power Value
$28.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$157.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$2.03
Base20.0%$46.22
Bull20.0%$46.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001955520-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001955520-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001955520-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001955520-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001955520-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001955520-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001955520-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001955520-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001955520-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001955520-25-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001955520-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001955520-26-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)