MeritValue

KENNAMETAL INC

KMTdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

KENNAMETAL INC earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.56 and $26.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.01B1$2.08B2$2.05B3$1.97B3$2.36B3
Net income$144.6M4$118.5M5$109.3M6$93.1M6$342.4M6
Operating cash flow−$181.4M7$257.9M8$277.1M9$208.3M9−$4.01M9
Capital expenditure$96.9M10$94.4M11$107.6M12$89M12$76.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$278.4M7$163.6M8$169.5M9$119.4M9−$80.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$85.6M13$106M13$128M13$140.5M14$95.8M14
Diluted shares83.9M81.4M80.0M77.9M77.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$202.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $202.76 of net worth that earned you $44.22 and generated −$10.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY22 14%FY23 12%FY24 10%FY25 9%FY26 24%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.56 and $26.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.3%
  • fcfBase$119.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.3%
  • fcfBase$119.4M
Earnings Power Value
$15.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$118.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.3%
Discount rate (WACC)9.11%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.69
Base3.3%$25.96
Bull8.3%$31.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056143 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056143 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056143 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056143 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001628280-26-056143 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)