KENNAMETAL INC
KMTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileKENNAMETAL INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.54 and $42.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.84B1 | $2.01B2 | $2.08B3 | $2.05B3 | $1.97B3 |
| Net income | $54.4M4 | $144.6M5 | $118.5M6 | $109.3M6 | $93.1M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $235.7M7 | −$181.4M8 | $257.9M9 | $277.1M9 | $208.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $127.3M10 | $96.9M11 | $94.4M12 | $107.6M12 | $89M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $108.4M7 | −$278.4M8 | $163.6M9 | $169.5M9 | $119.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $154M13 | $85.6M14 | $106M14 | $128M14 | $140.5M15 |
| Diluted shares | 84.3M | 83.9M | 81.4M | 80.0M | 77.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $164.84 of net worth that earned you $11.96 and generated $15.32 of cash last year.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.54 and $42.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$163.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$163.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$109.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $31.81 |
| Base | 5.0% | $39.07 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $47.76 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000055242-23-000040 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000055242-23-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000055242-23-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000055242-23-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000055242-24-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000055242-25-000068 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)