MeritValue

KEMPER Corp

KMPRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KEMPER Corp earns about -28% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.51 and $66.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.72B1$5.52B2$4.94B3$4.64B3$4.79B3
Net income−$123.7M4−$286.6M5−$272.1M6$317.8M6$143.3M6
Operating cash flow$350.7M7−$210.3M8−$134.2M9$382.9M9$584.5M9
Capital expenditure$57.8M10$30.8M11$53.8M12$53.2M12$30.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$292.9M7−$241.1M8−$188M9$329.7M9$553.9M9
Total debt$1.12B13$1.39B14$2.78B15$2.78B16$1.89B16
Cash & equivalents$148.2M17$212.4M18$64.1M18$65.4M18$126M18
Diluted shares64.3M63.8M64.0M64.8M62.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$428.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$88.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$301.41

10 shares is a claim on $428.3 of net worth that earned you $22.89 and generated $88.47 of cash last year, against $301.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 -129%FY22 -19%FY23 -4%FY24 7%FY25 4%

It earned about -28% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 68% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.51 and $66.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$66.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$329.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$329.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$46.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.11
Base4.0%$61.51
Bull9.0%$82.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860748-24-000046 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860748-25-000053 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860748-26-000014 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860748-24-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860748-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860748-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860748-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860748-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860748-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860748-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860748-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860748-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860748-23-000056 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860748-24-000046 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000860748-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000860748-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000860748-25-000053 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000860748-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)