MeritValue

KINDER MORGAN, INC.

KMIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KINDER MORGAN, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.5 and $11.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.2B1$18.1B2$13.6B3$13.5B3$15.2B3
Net income$1.78B4$2.55B5$2.39B6$2.61B6$3.06B6
Operating cash flow$5.71B7$4.97B8$6.49B9$5.64B9$5.92B9
Capital expenditure$1.28B10$1.62B11$2.32B12$2.63B12$3.03B12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.43B7$3.35B8$4.17B9$3.01B9$2.89B9
Total debt$33.3B13$31.8B14$32.1B15$31.9B16$32B16
Cash & equivalents$1.14B17$745M17$83M17$88M18$63M18
Diluted shares2.27B2.26B2.23B2.22B2.22B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$13
Debt you’d be carrying
$143.96

10 shares is a claim on $140.18 of net worth that earned you $13.75 and generated $13 of cash last year, against $143.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.5 and $11.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.01B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.01B
Earnings Power Value
$11.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.55B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.95
Base0.0%$4.95
Bull5.0%$9.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506307-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506307-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506307-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506307-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506307-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506307-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506307-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506307-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506307-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506307-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506307-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506307-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506307-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506307-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506307-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001506307-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506307-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001506307-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)