MeritValue

KIMBERLY CLARK CORP

KMBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

KIMBERLY CLARK CORP earns about 359% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.15 and $222.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.4B1$20.2B2$17.1B3$16.8B3$16.4B3
Net income$1.81B4$1.93B5$1.76B6$2.55B6$2.02B6
Operating cash flow$2.73B7$2.73B8$3.54B9$3.23B9$2.78B9
Capital expenditure$1.01B10$876M11$766M12$721M12$1.14B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.72B7$1.86B8$2.78B9$2.51B9$1.64B9
Total debt$433M13$844M14$567M15$564M16$694M16
Cash & equivalents$270M17$427M18$1.09B19$1.01B20$688M20
Diluted shares338.8M338.3M338.8M337.0M333.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.83

10 shares is a claim on $45.08 of net worth that earned you $60.65 and generated $49.19 of cash last year, against $20.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
359% avg · 5y
FY21 288%FY22 214%FY23 494%FY24 689%FY25 108%

It earned about 359% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.15 and $222.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$222.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$2.51B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$169.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$2.51B
Earnings Power Value
$60.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.93B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $169.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$107.74
Base10.6%$169.22
Bull15.6%$207.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000055785-24-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000055785-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007567 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000055785-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000055785-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007567 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000055785-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000055785-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000055785-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000055785-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007567 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000055785-23-000012 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000055785-24-000018 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055785-25-000013 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007567 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000055785-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000055785-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055785-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)