KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.
KLCdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileKinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.17B1 | $2.51B2 | $2.66B2 | $2.73B2 |
| Net income | $219.2M3 | $102.6M4 | −$92.8M4 | −$112.9M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $341.6M5 | $303.5M6 | $115.9M6 | $238.5M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $139.4M7 | $129M8 | $132.3M8 | $128.3M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $202.2M5 | $174.5M6 | −$16.4M6 | $110.3M6 |
| Total debt | — | $2.5B9 | $1.85B10 | $1.86B10 |
| Cash & equivalents | $105.2M11 | $156.1M12 | $62.3M12 | $133.2M12 |
| Diluted shares | 93.5M | 90.4M | 96.3M | 118.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $63.83 of net worth that earned you −$9.54 and generated $9.32 of cash last year, against $156.77 of debt.
It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 27% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 26% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$110.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$110.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$4.86M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043210 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-106342 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043210 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-106342 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043210 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-106342 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043210 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-106342 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-043210 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-106342 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043210 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-106342 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)