Klarna Group plc
KLARdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Klarna Group plc earns about -7% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.62 and $39.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.28B1 | $2.81B1 | $3.51B1 |
| Net income | −$244M2 | $21M2 | −$273M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $808M3 | $587M3 | −$1.03B3 |
| Capital expenditure | $1M4 | $1M4 | $3M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $807M3 | $586M3 | −$1.04B3 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.39B5 | $3.24B5 | $3.8B5 |
| Diluted shares | 362.1M | 364.0M | 377.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $66.41 of net worth that earned you −$7.23 and generated −$27.42 of cash last year.
It earned about -7% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.62 and $39.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$586M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$586M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $32.25 |
| Base | 5.0% | $37.62 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $44.04 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002003292-26-000007 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002003292-26-000007 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002003292-26-000007 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002003292-26-000007 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002003292-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalents)