MeritValue

KLA CORP

KLACdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KLA CORP earns about 46% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $257.37 and $1,394.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.92B1$9.21B2$10.5B3$9.81B3$12.2B3
Net income$2.08B4$3.32B5$3.39B6$2.76B6$4.06B6
Operating cash flow$2.19B7$3.31B8$3.67B9$3.31B9$4.08B9
Capital expenditure$231.6M10$307.3M11$341.6M12$277.4M12$335.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.95B7$3.01B8$3.33B9$3.03B9$3.75B9
Total debt$3.44B13$6.66B14$5.89B15$6.63B16$5.88B16
Cash & equivalents$1.43B17$1.58B18$1.93B19$1.98B20$2.08B20
Diluted shares155.4M151.6M140.2M136.2M133.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$350.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$303.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$280.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$439.94

10 shares is a claim on $350.84 of net worth that earned you $303.67 and generated $280.12 of cash last year, against $439.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
46% avg · 5y
FY21 41%FY22 54%FY23 53%FY24 34%FY25 48%

It earned about 46% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 71% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $257.37 and $1,394.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,394.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.4%
  • fcfBase$3.33B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$765.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.4%
  • fcfBase$3.33B
Earnings Power Value
$257.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.32B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$154.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $765.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$327.08
Base19.4%$765.41
Bull20.0%$782.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000319201-22-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000319201-22-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)