MeritValue

KLA CORP

KLACdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

KLA CORP earns about 47% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 771% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.11 and $61.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$9.21B1$10.5B2$9.81B3$12.2B3$13.6B3
Net income$3.32B4$3.39B5$2.76B6$4.06B6$4.83B6
Operating cash flow$3.31B7$3.67B8$3.31B9$4.08B9$4.14B9
Capital expenditure$307.3M10$341.6M11$277.4M12$335.3M12$375.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.01B7$3.33B8$3.03B9$3.75B9$3.77B9
Total debt$6.66B13$5.89B14$6.63B15$5.88B15$5.89B16
Cash & equivalents$1.58B17$1.93B18$1.98B19$2.08B20$1.65B20
Diluted shares151.6M140.2M1.36B1.34B1.32B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$48.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$44.61

10 shares is a claim on $48.12 of net worth that earned you $36.61 and generated $28.55 of cash last year, against $44.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
47% avg · 5y
FY22 54%FY23 53%FY24 34%FY25 48%FY26 46%

It earned about 47% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+771% shares · 5y

Share count is up 771% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.11 and $61.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$61.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$3.75B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$3.75B
Earnings Power Value
$26.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.39B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.6%
Discount rate (WACC)9.11%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.3
Base7.6%$51.56
Bull12.6%$64.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2026-06-30 · accession 0000319201-26-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000319201-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000319201-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000319201-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000319201-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)