MeritValue

KINGSTONE COMPANIES, INC.

KINSdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KINGSTONE COMPANIES, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 34% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $69.7 and $75.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$161.2M1$130.2M2$144.2M3$155.1M4$214.9M4
Net income−$7.38M5−$22.5M6−$6.17M7$18.4M8$40.8M8
Operating cash flow$24.3M9−$915,52110−$11.3M11$57.9M12$75.9M12
Capital expenditure$4.5M13$4.55M14$1.83M15$2.34M16$2.81M16
Free cash flow (derived)$19.8M9−$5.47M10−$13.2M11$55.6M12$73.1M12
Total debt$47.1M17$68.7M18$75.7M19$33.5M20$13.3M20
Cash & equivalents$24.3M21$12M22$8.98M22$28.7M23$12.2M23
Diluted shares10.6M10.6M10.8M12.4M14.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$86.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.42

10 shares is a claim on $86.78 of net worth that earned you $28.82 and generated $51.65 of cash last year, against $9.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 -22%FY23 -3%FY24 26%FY25 33%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34% shares · 5y

Share count is up 34% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $69.7 and $75.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$55.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$55.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$23.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.1
Base5.0%$69.7
Bull10.0%$85.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004080 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033992-25-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033992-26-000013 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033992-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033992-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033992-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033992-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033992-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033992-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000033992-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033992-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-004054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000033992-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)