MeritValue

KIMCO REALTY CORP

KIMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KIMCO REALTY CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.9M1$16.8M1$1.78B2$2.04B2$2.14B2
Net income$844.1M3$126M4$654.3M5$410.8M5$584.7M5
Operating cash flow$618.9M6$861.1M7$1.07B8$1.01B8$1.12B8
Capital expenditure————$18.4M9
Free cash flow (derived)————$1.1B8
Total debt$7.03B10$6.78B11$7.26B12$7.96B13$7.72B13
Cash & equivalents$325.6M14$147M15$780.5M16$688.6M17$211.6M17
Diluted shares511.4M617.9M618.2M672.1M675.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$153.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$114.3

10 shares is a claim on $153.89 of net worth that earned you $8.66 and generated $16.31 of cash last year, against $114.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 1%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$8.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$584.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004541 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060760 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005407 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024723 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060760 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005407 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024723 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060760 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060760 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004541 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005407 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024723 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060760 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004541 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005407 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024723 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-060760 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)