MeritValue

Kraft Heinz Co

KHCdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kraft Heinz Co earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.63 and $40.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26B1$26.5B2$26.6B3$25.8B3$24.9B3
Net income$1.01B4$2.36B5$2.86B6$2.74B6−$5.85B6
Operating cash flow$5.36B7$2.47B8$3.98B9$4.18B9$4.46B9
Capital expenditure$905M10$916M11$1.01B12$1.02B12$801M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.46B7$1.55B8$2.96B9$3.16B9$3.66B9
Total debt$14M13$6M14$014——
Cash & equivalents$3.45B15$1.04B16$1.4B17$1.33B18$2.62B18
Diluted shares1.24B1.24B1.24B1.22B1.19B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$351
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$49.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.84
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $351 of net worth that earned you −$49.25 and generated $30.84 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 -9%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.63 and $40.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$40.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.16B
Earnings Power Value
$20.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.36B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $40.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.24
Base0.0%$40.24
Bull5.0%$49.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001637459-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001637459-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001637459-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001637459-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001637459-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001637459-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001637459-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001637459-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001637459-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001637459-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001637459-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001637459-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001637459-23-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001637459-24-000018 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001637459-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001637459-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001637459-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001637459-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)