MeritValue

Kolibri Global Energy Inc.

KGEIdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 99512% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$37.6M1$50.6M2$58.7M3$57.4M3
Net income$16.6M4$19.3M5$18.1M6$15.5M6
Operating cash flow$22M7$38.6M8$38.9M9$41.5M9
Capital expenditure$37.1M10$53.2M11$31.3M12$62.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$15.1M7−$14.5M8$7.64M9−$21.1M9
Total debt$18.2M13$30M14$33.5M15$49.5M15
Cash & equivalents$1.04M16$598,00017$4.31M17$2.8M17
Diluted shares35,61035.6M35.5M35.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.36
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.95

10 shares is a claim on $57.48 of net worth that earned you $4.36 and generated −$5.95 of cash last year, against $13.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 4y
FY22 8%FY23 11%FY24 9%FY25 7%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+99512% shares · 4y

Share count is up 99512% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 172% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$5.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017601 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000648 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011486 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017601 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000648 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011486 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017601 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000648 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011486 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017601 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000648 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011486 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-017601 (Borrowings)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000648 (Borrowings)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011486 (Borrowings)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000648 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-011486 (CashAndCashEquivalents)