KINROSS GOLD CORP

KGCdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

KINROSS GOLD CORP earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.6 and $68.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.6B1$3.46B2$4.24B3$5.15B4$7.05B4
Net income$221.2M5−$605.2M6$416.3M7$948.8M8$2.39B8
Operating cash flow$1.14B9$1.61B10$2.45B11$3.76B11
Capital expenditure$821.7M12$764.2M13$1.1B14$1.08B15$1.19B15
Free cash flow (derived)$313.5M9$507M10$1.37B11$2.57B11
Total debt$1.63B16$2.59B17$2.23B18$1.44B19$738.2M19
Cash & equivalents$531.5M20$418.1M21$352.4M22$611.5M22$1.74B22
Diluted shares1.24B1.22B1.23B1.23B1.20B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.15

10 shares is a claim on $71.48 of net worth that earned you $19.92 and generated $21.39 of cash last year, against $6.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 5%FY24 13%FY25 33%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.6 and $68.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.37B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.37B
Earnings Power Value
$3.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$416.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.16
Base20.0%$38.09
Bull20.0%$38.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-040149 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039723 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028819 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035268 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-040149 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039723 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028819 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035268 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-041156 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028819 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035268 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-040149 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039723 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028819 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035268 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-040149 (Borrowings)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039723 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028819 (Borrowings)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035268 (Borrowings)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039723 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-028819 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035268 (CashAndCashEquivalents)