MeritValue

KFORCE INC

KFRCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KFORCE INC earns about 45% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.6 and $63.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.58B1$1.71B2$1.53B3$1.41B3$1.33B3
Net income$75.2M4$75.4M5$61.1M6$50.4M6$34.8M6
Operating cash flow$72.9M7$90.8M8$91.5M9$86.9M9$61.6M9
Capital expenditure$6.44M10$8.11M11$7.76M12$7.57M12$14.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$66.5M7$82.7M8$83.7M9$79.3M9$46.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$97M13$121,00014$119,00015$349,00016$2.14M16
Diluted shares21.2M20.5M19.5M18.8M17.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$70.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $70.1 of net worth that earned you $19.59 and generated $26.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
45% avg · 5y
FY21 82%FY22 41%FY23 38%FY24 33%FY25 28%

It earned about 45% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.6 and $63.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$59.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$79.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$79.3M
Earnings Power Value
$35.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$61.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.86
Base0.0%$63.86
Bull5.0%$79.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000930420-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000930420-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000930420-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000930420-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000930420-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000930420-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000930420-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000930420-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000930420-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000930420-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000930420-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000930420-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000930420-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000930420-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000930420-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000930420-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)