MeritValue

Keysight Technologies, Inc.

KEYSdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Keysight Technologies, Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.55 and $151.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.94B1$5.42B2$5.46B3$4.98B3$5.38B3
Net income$894M4$1.12B5$1.06B6$614M6$850M6
Operating cash flow$1.32B7$1.14B8$1.41B9$1.05B9$1.41B9
Capital expenditure$174M10$185M11$197M12$154M12$128M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.15B7$959M8$1.21B9$898M9$1.28B9
Total debt$3.58B13$3.59B14$4.19B15$3.58B16$5.07B16
Cash & equivalents$2.05B17$2.04B18$2.47B19$1.8B20$1.87B20
Diluted shares187.0M182.0M179.0M175.0M173.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$339.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$74.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$292.95

10 shares is a claim on $339.94 of net worth that earned you $49.13 and generated $74.05 of cash last year, against $292.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 21%FY23 18%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 41% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.55 and $151.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$151.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$123.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
Earnings Power Value
$53.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$894M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $123.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$81.55
Base8.1%$123.04
Bull13.1%$155.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001601046-23-000134 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001601046-24-000159 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001601046-25-000127 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001601046-23-000134 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001601046-24-000159 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001601046-25-000127 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001601046-23-000134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001601046-24-000159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001601046-25-000127 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001601046-23-000134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001601046-24-000159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001601046-25-000127 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001601046-22-000161 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001601046-23-000134 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001601046-24-000159 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001601046-25-000127 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001601046-22-000161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001601046-23-000134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001601046-24-000159 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001601046-25-000127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)