MeritValue

KEYCORP /NEW/

KEYdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KEYCORP /NEW/ earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.11 and $42.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.82B1$1.59B2$1.44B3$1.64B3$1.75B3
Net income$2.63B4$1.92B5$967M6−$161M6$1.83B6
Operating cash flow$1.15B7$4.47B8$2.9B9$664M9$2.21B9
Capital expenditure$66M10$96M11$142M12$65M12$107M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.09B7$4.37B8$2.76B9$599M9$2.1B9
Total debt$12B13$19.3B14$19.6B15$12.1B16$9.92B16
Cash & equivalents$913M17$887M18$941M18$1.74B18$1.29B18
Diluted shares957.4M933.1M932.8M949.6M1.11B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$183.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$89.5

10 shares is a claim on $183.95 of net worth that earned you $16.51 and generated $18.96 of cash last year, against $89.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 8%FY23 13%FY24 10%FY25 19%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.11 and $42.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$42.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.3%
  • fcfBase$2.1B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.3%
  • fcfBase$2.1B
Earnings Power Value
$17.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.83B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.3
Base9.3%$32.49
Bull14.3%$41.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091576-23-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091576-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010546 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091576-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091576-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010546 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091576-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091576-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010546 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091576-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091576-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010546 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091576-23-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091576-24-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000091576-25-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010546 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000091576-25-000038 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010546 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)