MeritValue

KIRBY CORP

KEXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KIRBY CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.22 and $400.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.25B1$2.78B2$3.09B3$3.27B3$3.36B3
Net income−$247M4$122.3M5$222.9M6$286.7M6$354.6M6
Operating cash flow$321.6M7$294.1M8$540.2M9$756.5M9$670.2M9
Capital expenditure$98M10$172.6M11$401.7M12$342.7M12$264.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$223.6M7$121.5M8$138.5M9$413.8M9$405.7M9
Total debt$2.32B13$2.16B14$2.03B15$1.74B16$1.83B16
Cash & equivalents$34.8M17$80.6M18$32.6M19$74.4M20$78.8M20
Diluted shares60.1M60.3M59.9M58.4M56.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$603.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$72.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$326.74

10 shares is a claim on $603.18 of net worth that earned you $63.27 and generated $72.39 of cash last year, against $326.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.22 and $400.5 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$400.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$405.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$204.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$405.7M
Earnings Power Value
$41.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$222.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$92.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $204.76
The three cases
Bear0.0%$72.17
Base20.0%$204.76
Bull20.0%$204.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016786 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003306 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016786 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003306 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)