MeritValue

KELLY SERVICES INC

KELYAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KELLY SERVICES INC earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.15 and $23.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.91B1$4.97B2$4.84B3$4.33B3$4.25B3
Net income$156.1M4−$62.5M5$36.4M6−$600,0006−$254.1M6
Operating cash flow$85M7−$76.3M8$76.7M9$26.9M9$122.6M9
Capital expenditure$11.2M10$12M11$15.3M12$11.1M12$8.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73.8M7−$88.3M8$61.4M9$15.8M9$114.1M9
Total debt$013$700,00014$015$239.4M16$101.9M16
Cash & equivalents$112.7M17$153.7M18$125.8M19$39M19$33M19
Diluted shares39.5M38.1M36.3M35.5M35.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$278.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$72.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$29.03

10 shares is a claim on $278.21 of net worth that earned you −$72.39 and generated $32.51 of cash last year, against $29.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 12%FY23 -5%FY23 2%FY24 -1%FY25 -5%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.15 and $23.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$21.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.03
Base0.0%$23.03
Bull5.0%$29.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000055135-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000055135-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055135-26-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000055135-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000055135-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055135-26-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000055135-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000055135-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055135-26-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000055135-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000055135-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055135-26-000053 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000055135-23-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000055135-24-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055135-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0000055135-26-000053 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000055135-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000055135-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000055135-26-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)