MeritValue

Keel Infrastructure Corp.

KEELdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Keel Infrastructure Corp. earns about -16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 183% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$169.5M1$142.4M2$120.4M3$133.3M3$229.3M3
Net income$20.5M4−$175.6M5−$55.5M6−$28.4M6−$284.5M6
Operating cash flow−$43.3M7−$122.4M8−$106.9M9−$141.7M9−$226.6M9
Capital expenditure—$153.1M10$48.4M11$286.9M11$100.3M11
Free cash flow (derived)—−$275.6M8−$155.3M9−$428.6M9−$326.9M9
Total debt——$4.02M12$3.15M13$1.34B13
Cash & equivalents$125.6M14$30.9M15$84M15$59.5M15$631M15
Diluted shares194.8M224.2M262.2M414.7M551.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.16
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.27

10 shares is a claim on $10.16 of net worth that earned you −$5.16 and generated −$5.93 of cash last year, against $24.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 -66%FY23 -12%FY24 -0%FY25 -13%

It earned an average -16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+183% shares · 5y

Share count is up 183% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 33190% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021559 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-107072 (Revenue)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (Revenues)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-015279 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 40-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-107072 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021559 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-107072 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-107072 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-107072 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037514 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)