MeritValue

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

KDPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.84 and $15.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.7B1$14.1B2$14.8B3$15.4B3$16.6B3
Net income$2.15B4$1.44B5$2.18B6$1.44B6$2.08B6
Operating cash flow$2.87B7$2.84B8$1.33B9$2.22B9$1.99B9
Capital expenditure$423M10$353M11$425M12$563M12$486M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.45B7$2.48B8$904M9$1.66B9$1.51B9
Total debt$23.8B13$24B14$14.3B15$16.6B16$17B16
Cash & equivalents$567M17$535M18$267M19$510M20$1.03B20
Diluted shares1.43B1.43B1.41B1.37B1.36B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$187.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$125.01

10 shares is a claim on $187.23 of net worth that earned you $15.26 and generated $11.04 of cash last year, against $125.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 4%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.84 and $15.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.51B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.51B
Earnings Power Value
$15.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.08B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.03
Base0.0%$4.03
Bull5.0%$7.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418135-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418135-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418135-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418135-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418135-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418135-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418135-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418135-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418135-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418135-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418135-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418135-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418135-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418135-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418135-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001418135-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001418135-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001418135-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001418135-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001418135-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)