MeritValue

Kodiak AI, Inc.

KDKdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$16.9M1$14.9M1$3.8M1
Net income−$3,5422−$56.9M3−$69.5M3−$585.5M3
Operating cash flow$04−$43.8M5−$51M5−$94.4M5
Capital expenditure—$3.27M6$3.19M6$22M6
Free cash flow (derived)—−$47.1M5−$54.2M5−$116.5M5
Total debt$07$5M8$17.6M9$41.8M9
Cash & equivalents$010$27.8M11$16.7M11$50.8M11
Diluted shares—57.9M58.4M91.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$31.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$64.18
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.58

10 shares is a claim on −$31.03 of net worth that earned you −$64.18 and generated −$12.77 of cash last year, against $4.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 4y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+57% shares · 4y

Share count is up 57% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016910 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007635 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016910 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007635 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016910 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016910 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007635 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012406 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016910 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007635 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016910 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)