MeritValue

Kyndryl Holdings, Inc.

KDdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. earns about -10% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.74 and $6.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$18.7B1$17B2$16.1B3$15.1B3$15.1B3
Net income−$2.3B4−$1.37B5−$340M6$252M6$198M6
Operating cash flow−$119M7$781M8$454M9$942M9$948M9
Capital expenditure$752M10$865M11$651M12$605M12$608M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$871M7−$84M8−$197M9$337M9$340M9
Total debt$3.11B13$3.11B14$3.03B15$3.16B16$7.5B16
Cash & equivalents$2.22B17$1.85B18$1.55B19$1.79B20$2.62B20
Diluted shares224.1M226.7M229.2M239.1M233.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$50.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$320.62

10 shares is a claim on $50.26 of net worth that earned you $8.47 and generated $14.54 of cash last year, against $320.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -40%FY23 -23%FY24 -1%FY25 12%FY26 4%

It earned about -10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 141% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.74 and $6.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$337M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$337M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$9.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$0.25
Base5.0%$4.74
Bull10.0%$10.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008788 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015713 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-067881 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008788 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015713 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-067881 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008788 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015713 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-067881 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-003291 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015713 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-067881 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-010545 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008788 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015713 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-067881 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-010545 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008788 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-015713 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-067881 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)