MeritValue

KBR, INC.

KBRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KBR, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.26 and $40.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$7.34B1$6.56B2$6.96B3$7.71B3$7.79B3
Net income$27M4$190M5−$265M6$375M6$415M6
Operating cash flow$278M7$396M8$331M8$462M8$557M9
Capital expenditure$30M10$71M11$62M12$52M12$42M12
Free cash flow (derived)$248M7$325M8$269M8$410M8$515M9
Total debt$3.78B13$3.48B14$3.66B15$5.14B16$5.19B16
Cash & equivalents$370M17$389M18$304M19$342M20$500M20
Diluted shares141.0M156.0M135.0M134.0M129.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$116.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$402.48

10 shares is a claim on $116.51 of net worth that earned you $32.17 and generated $39.92 of cash last year, against $402.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 5%FY23 -1%FY25 6%FY26 7%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.26 and $40.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$410M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$410M
Earnings Power Value
$15.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$190M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.04
Base8.1%$27.78
Bull13.1%$42.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001357615-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001357615-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001357615-26-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001357615-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001357615-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001357615-26-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001357615-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001357615-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-02 · accession 0001357615-26-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001357615-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001357615-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001357615-26-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001357615-23-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001357615-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001357615-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0001357615-26-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001357615-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001357615-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001357615-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0001357615-26-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)