MeritValue

KAISER ALUMINUM CORP

KALUdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KAISER ALUMINUM CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $40.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.62B1$3.43B2$3.09B3$3.02B3$3.37B3
Net income−$18.5M4−$29.6M5$67.8M6$65.7M6$112.5M6
Operating cash flow$79.4M7−$63.1M8$211.9M9$167.1M9$111.4M9
Capital expenditure$58M10$142.5M11$143.2M12$180.8M12$136.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$21.4M7−$205.6M8$68.7M9−$13.7M9−$25.5M9
Total debt$1.04B13$1.04B14$1.04B15$1.04B16$1.06B16
Cash & equivalents$303.2M17$57.4M18$82.4M19$18.4M19$7M19
Diluted shares15.8M15.9M16.1M16.3M16.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$496.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.68
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$637.47

10 shares is a claim on $496.99 of net worth that earned you $67.68 and generated −$15.34 of cash last year, against $637.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$40.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$65.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018958 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024313 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059575 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018958 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024313 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059575 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018958 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024313 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059575 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018958 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024313 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059575 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004215 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018958 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024313 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059575 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018958 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024313 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059575 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)