MeritValue

KADANT INC

KAIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

KADANT INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $98.05 and $494.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$786.6M1$904.7M2$957.7M3$1.05B3$1.05B3
Net income$84M4$120.9M5$116.1M6$111.6M6$102M6
Operating cash flow$162.4M7$102.6M8$165.5M9$155.3M9$171.3M9
Capital expenditure$12.8M10$28.2M11$31.9M12$21M12$17M12
Free cash flow (derived)$149.6M7$74.4M8$133.7M9$134.3M9$154.3M9
Total debt$270M13$203M14$112.3M15$289.9M16$375.8M17
Cash & equivalents$91.2M18$76.4M19$103.8M20$94.7M20$119.6M20
Diluted shares11.7M11.7M11.7M11.8M11.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$830.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$86.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$130.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$318.68

10 shares is a claim on $830.77 of net worth that earned you $86.46 and generated $130.81 of cash last year, against $318.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY22 12%FY22 16%FY23 16%FY24 11%FY26 8%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $98.05 and $494.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$494.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.3%
  • fcfBase$134.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$299.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.3%
  • fcfBase$134.3M
Earnings Power Value
$98.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$111.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$127.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $299.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$140.92
Base16.3%$299.87
Bull20.0%$349.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000886346-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886346-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000886346-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000886346-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886346-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000886346-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000886346-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886346-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000886346-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000886346-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886346-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000886346-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000886346-22-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886346-23-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000886346-24-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000886346-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2026-01-03 · accession 0000886346-26-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000886346-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886346-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000886346-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)