MeritValue

JUNIATA VALLEY FINANCIAL CORP

JUVFdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

JUNIATA VALLEY FINANCIAL CORP earns about 18% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.6M1$27.6M2$33.2M3$37.1M4$39M4
Net income$6.6M5$7.06M6$6.6M7$6.23M8$7.98M8
Operating cash flow$8.87M9$9.94M10$7.87M11$5.34M12$10.1M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$24.2M13$75.7M14$72.8M15$47.2M16$49.9M16
Cash & equivalents$13.5M17————
Diluted shares5.0M5.0M5.0M5.0M5.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$114.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.87
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$99.2

10 shares is a claim on $114.04 of net worth that earned you $15.87 last year, against $99.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 14%FY24 28%FY25 28%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 106% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004055 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008807 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003701 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034395 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008807 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003701 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034395 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008807 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003701 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034395 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004055 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-008807 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003701 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034395 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-003773 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)