MeritValue

James River Group Holdings, Inc.

JRVRdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

James River Group Holdings, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 72% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$609M1$661.5M2$812M3$707.6M3$687.6M3
Net income−$172.8M4$31M5−$107.7M6−$81.1M6$47.4M6
Operating cash flow−$913.5M7$222.7M8$88M9−$247.1M9−$18.8M9
Capital expenditure$6.3M10$8.22M11$6.43M12$4.89M12$4.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$919.8M7$214.5M8$81.5M9−$252M9−$23.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$190.1M13$159.2M14$274.3M15$362.3M16$260.9M16
Diluted shares35.0M37.7M37.8M38.7M60.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$89.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $89.67 of net worth that earned you $7.9 and generated −$3.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 11%FY23 30%FY24 -37%FY25 26%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+72% shares · 5y

Share count is up 72% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$12.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001620459-24-000022 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001620459-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001620459-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001620459-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001620459-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001620459-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001620459-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001620459-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001620459-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001620459-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001620459-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001620459-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001620459-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001620459-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001620459-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001620459-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)