MeritValue

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO

JPMdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO earns about 15% on equity, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $182.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$121.6B1$128.7B2$158.1B3$177.6B3$182.4B3
Net income$48.3B4$37.7B5$49.6B6$58.5B6$57B6
Operating cash flow$78.1B7$107.1B8$13B9−$42B9−$147.8B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$53.6B10$44B11$44.7B12$52.9B13$64.8B13
Cash & equivalents$740.8B14$567.2B15$624.2B15$469.3B15$343.3B15
Diluted shares3.03B2.97B2.94B2.88B2.78B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,303.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$205.1
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$232.88

10 shares is a claim on $1,303.03 of net worth that earned you $205.1 last year, against $232.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
15% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 13%FY23 15%FY24 17%FY25 16%

It earned an average 15% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$182.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.6B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$246.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000019617-24-000225 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000019617-25-000270 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008131 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000019617-24-000225 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000019617-25-000270 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000019617-24-000225 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000019617-25-000270 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000019617-23-000231 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000019617-24-000225 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000019617-25-000270 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008131 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000019617-25-000270 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008131 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)